Tasty commentary on politics, law, religion and more, without the fattening dogma. (The views expressed on this blog are the author's alone, and do not represent those of any past, current or future employer or his past, current, and future soulmate.)
October 28, 2002
OTP 2002-03 NBA PREVIEW
Will you be able to hear the phrase "4-peat" without throwing something at the TV? Will the Mavs score 200 points in a game? Will the Knicks drive Spike Lee away from his courtside seats? Will Alan Iverson go to practice? Will Grant Hill finally stay healthy? Will Jordan actually come off the bench? Will Yao Ming be the next Rik Smits - or the next Shawn Bradley? And finally, will anybody stop the Lakers....all this and more coming to an NBA court near you.
Western Contenders - can win it all if:
1) Kings: Adding Clark keeps Vlade fresh for the playoffs, and doesn’t lead to a shortage of playing time for Pollard, Turkoglu and the rest of the stellar bench.
2) Lakers: Shaq’s big toe heals, the supporting cast continues to raise their games in the post-season
3) Mavs: Najera, Griffin and Popeye Jones provide provide enough D to complement the awesome O.
4) Spurs: The global backcourt of Parker and Ginobili reaches its potential this year; The Admiral has one last great playoff run left in him.
Western Pack - could make the playoffs if:
5) Trail Blazers: Figure out a rotation and stick to it (in other words, get decent value for Stoudamire)
6) Clippers: Somebody other than Brand and Miller is looking to win, rather than just get paid next year.
7) Rockets: No more migraine for Stevie; Mobley and Griffin improve their shot selection
8) Supersonics: Payton’s grousing doesn’t impact his play; Lewis & Radmanovic combine for 30 a game.
9) Jazz: Kirilenko takes a major step forward; Harping finds his stroke
10) T-Wolves: The Nesterovic/Jackson combo provides them with quality pivot-play; Troy Hudson manages a Terrell Brandon impersonation.
Western Longshots - will be watchable if:
11) Grizzlies: Jason Williams figures out that he should stop gunning and simply feed Gasol, Gooden and Battier
12) Suns: Their young players (Johnson and Stoudemire) grow up quickly
13) Warriors: They put together a lineup that’s not less than the sum of its parts.
14) Nuggets: They’re playing your team, and you like to watch blow-outs.
Eastern "Contenders" - could lose in the finals if:
1) Hornets: Davis doesn’t become a gunner, Mashburn is healthy for the playoff run
2) Pacers: Tinsley cuts down on his turnovers, Isaiah gets them to play with passion
3) Nets: Martin and Jefferson rise faster than Mutumbo declines
4) Sixers: Iverson passes to Van Horn; the center-by-committee (Macculloch, Coleman, Dalembert) is healthy for the playoff run
Eastern Pack - can make the playoffs if:
5) Pistons: Their D-first approach rubs off on Hamilton; Robinson & Rebraca continue to provide points in the pivot.
6) Magic: Hill comes back, OR they get something out their big men
7) Bucks: They stop bickering and just play; Thomas fills the Big Dog’s shoes
8) Raptors: Wilkens cobbles a bench together, Carter plays with fire
9) Celtics: Walker and Pierce can cover for the lack of a point guard
10) Wizards: MJ plays the entire year; one the young big guys (Heyward, Brown, Thomas) develops.
11) Hawks: Ratliff stays on the floor, they find enough shots to share between Terry, Robinson and Abdur-Rahim
Eastern Longshots - will be watchable if:
12) Bulls: The kids (Curry,Chandler, and Williams) grow up fast
13) Heat: Discover a big man other than Grant who can play, Caron Butler really is the next Paul Pierce.
14) Knicks: If you are a masochistic Knicks fan, if you want to teach a lesson on how not to manage an NBA franchise
15) Cavaliers: If you like flashy, glitzy dunks by teams that are trailing by double digits.
Conference Finals: Kings over Lakers, Hornets over Sixers
Finals: Kings over Hornets
WILL IRAQIS EMBRACE DEFEAT
John Dower, author of Embracing Defeat, the excellent history of the American occupation of post-war Japan, warns in today's Times that that Japan model is a poor fit for a post-Hussein Iraq. In particular, Dower argues that the following factors are currently not in place: 1) international legitimacy of the occupation; 2) legitimacy of the occupation by the vanquished (which was very much aided in Japan by the cooperation of Emperor Hirohito; 3) ethnic & religious homogeneity; 4) the unique charisma of MacArthur; 5) long-term development of post-war policy; 6) commitment to progressive reforms (land, labor, and legal); 7) long-term commitment of significant civil and military manpower; 8) prewar democratic tradition; 9) cooperation of the pre-war local bureaucracy, 10) short-term regional stability; and 11) a lack of natural resources attracting carpetbaggers.
The situation may not be as dire as Dower projects to it be - a number of these factors say less about Iraq and more about Dower's skepticism in the current administration's ability to follow in the footsteps of Truman's visionary post-war planners (e.g. the complaints about the thoroughness of planning, or the logistical requirements, etc.). On the other hand, Dower raises some of the most important challenging facing any post-war Iraq policy - Iraq's artificial birth and lack of unifying figure, the inability to salvage anything useful out of the prior political structure, and the poisioned chalice of oil wealth.
While Dower wishes to emphasize the differences between Japan and Iraq, there is one similarity that can not be overlooked - that now and then the existence of naysayers who believed non-Western people to be culturally incapable of self-government. If the current group of naysayers is to be proved wrong, the challenges Dower identifies need to be at the heart of planning that is already seriously underway for the creation of a successful post-Hussein Iraq.
John Dower, author of Embracing Defeat, the excellent history of the American occupation of post-war Japan, warns in today's Times that that Japan model is a poor fit for a post-Hussein Iraq. In particular, Dower argues that the following factors are currently not in place: 1) international legitimacy of the occupation; 2) legitimacy of the occupation by the vanquished (which was very much aided in Japan by the cooperation of Emperor Hirohito; 3) ethnic & religious homogeneity; 4) the unique charisma of MacArthur; 5) long-term development of post-war policy; 6) commitment to progressive reforms (land, labor, and legal); 7) long-term commitment of significant civil and military manpower; 8) prewar democratic tradition; 9) cooperation of the pre-war local bureaucracy, 10) short-term regional stability; and 11) a lack of natural resources attracting carpetbaggers.
The situation may not be as dire as Dower projects to it be - a number of these factors say less about Iraq and more about Dower's skepticism in the current administration's ability to follow in the footsteps of Truman's visionary post-war planners (e.g. the complaints about the thoroughness of planning, or the logistical requirements, etc.). On the other hand, Dower raises some of the most important challenging facing any post-war Iraq policy - Iraq's artificial birth and lack of unifying figure, the inability to salvage anything useful out of the prior political structure, and the poisioned chalice of oil wealth.
While Dower wishes to emphasize the differences between Japan and Iraq, there is one similarity that can not be overlooked - that now and then the existence of naysayers who believed non-Western people to be culturally incapable of self-government. If the current group of naysayers is to be proved wrong, the challenges Dower identifies need to be at the heart of planning that is already seriously underway for the creation of a successful post-Hussein Iraq.
October 26, 2002
MOURNING WELLSTONE
A day of reflection has only somewhat eased the shock of the news of Senator Wellstone's death. My one brief encounter with the man left a lasting impression - of a public servant with an utter lack of artifice or pretension. Our nation has lost one of its most stirring voices for social justice. We are all poorer for that loss.
A day of reflection has only somewhat eased the shock of the news of Senator Wellstone's death. My one brief encounter with the man left a lasting impression - of a public servant with an utter lack of artifice or pretension. Our nation has lost one of its most stirring voices for social justice. We are all poorer for that loss.
October 21, 2002
A COMMUNITARIAN MOMENT
This is worthy of a much longer piece, but for now I'll share this thought. With 1) the massive external challenge facing the United States due to the rise of Islamic fundamentalism and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction; and the 2) massive internal challenge facing our country due to the absolute decay of civic responsibility among the uber-rich and corporate America, this country is facing its greatest need for a communitarian correction since the 1930s. I can only hope that a sufficiently strong enough leader can emerge who can move beyond the cultural left's failure to recognize the first challenge and the economic right's failure to admit the latter.
This is worthy of a much longer piece, but for now I'll share this thought. With 1) the massive external challenge facing the United States due to the rise of Islamic fundamentalism and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction; and the 2) massive internal challenge facing our country due to the absolute decay of civic responsibility among the uber-rich and corporate America, this country is facing its greatest need for a communitarian correction since the 1930s. I can only hope that a sufficiently strong enough leader can emerge who can move beyond the cultural left's failure to recognize the first challenge and the economic right's failure to admit the latter.
DAVID E. KELLEY STRIKES AGAIN
Sure it's easy to poke holes at the myriad of ways that Girls Club glamorizes the thankless existence of "high-powered" lawyers right out of law school. You know, how some female lawyers aren't drop-dead gorgeous, that prestigious big firms don't do exciting criminal defense and plaintiff litigation, but instead do defense work for faceless corporate clients and put together large corporate deals. Still, any show that accurately portrays associates scheming for work, partners referring to their underlings as "keepers," kvetching about being kept on the back, back benches and a conversation that includes the words "billables, lateral and headhunter" is about as real as TV is going to get. Well, as real until NBC picks up my idea for a "Scrubs-like" take on the Legal world.
Sure it's easy to poke holes at the myriad of ways that Girls Club glamorizes the thankless existence of "high-powered" lawyers right out of law school. You know, how some female lawyers aren't drop-dead gorgeous, that prestigious big firms don't do exciting criminal defense and plaintiff litigation, but instead do defense work for faceless corporate clients and put together large corporate deals. Still, any show that accurately portrays associates scheming for work, partners referring to their underlings as "keepers," kvetching about being kept on the back, back benches and a conversation that includes the words "billables, lateral and headhunter" is about as real as TV is going to get. Well, as real until NBC picks up my idea for a "Scrubs-like" take on the Legal world.