MOTORING TOWARDS DIVIDED GOVERNMENT

As of right now, 2002 is ripe for a major Dem victory. The fundamental reason is that the Republicans are locked into a loser of a domestic agenda. The disconnect between the GOP's unpopular agenda and its majority status has been obscured by W.'s brilliant faux-triangulation during the 2000 election and 9/11. The latest wave of business scandals on the other hand has shone a bright spot-light on the bankruptcy of the GOPs embrace of market fundamentalism. It's not that economic conservatives are wrong to warn against over-regulation, excessive taxation, and irresponsible social spending. It's that they've been so successful at shaping our economic policy that we aren't anywhere near the danger point on any these issues. Take tax policy for example - the GOP has swam so far into supply-side fantasies that fiscal conservatism has become a Democratic position. 2002 will very likely be the year that it sinks in that the Dems are the party of economic pragmatism.

There is also increasing evidence that the GOP's standard safety-valve - unleashing the culture warriors - has reached a point of diminishing returns. It not as if there is a latent well of support for culture war - its just not the one the GOP has fought in recent years. The fundamentalist take on 9/11, with gays & feminists painted as villains, went over like a lead balloon. The GOP's best option is to return to the Cold War handbook of painting the Dems as soft on defense. This is a very winnable battle for the Dems, who might even convince voters that the GOP is trying for homeland security on the cheap. If the Dems can keep the GOP from wrapping itself in the flag, W.'s popularity will be irrelevant. The critical swing voters will make up their mind on pocketbook issues. And they will not be endorsing market fundamentalism.