Checking in with the Road Map at the First Rest Stop

As we're now one month into the much balleyhooed hudna, it's a good time to quickly assess the current progress in latest Israel-Palestinian peace initiative.


First, the hudna has held, as the Palestinian terror groups have downshifted into a low-grade attacks mainly on the settlements. This of course had led to the Israeli Right screaming about a lack of Palestinian compliance, to no avail. Everyone knew that what Israel was buying in the cease-fire deal was a respite from large-scale attacks in Israel proper. It has been these attacks that have wrecked a devastating toll both in terms of innocent lives, but also wrecking Israel's economy. All indications show that Hamas, Islamic Jihad & Fatah intend to keep to the hudna for the next couple of months. However, there is still the real possibility of a splinter group torpeding everything with one successful attack.


Second, Abbas has done absolutely nothing to crack down on the terror groups. This of course, is thoroughly unsurprising, given that he would have to win his civil war with Arafat before he could even contemplate such a move. So far, Abbas has been buoyed by the events of the past month. He clearly intends to postpone the inevitable showdown with Arafat for as long as possible, hoping to gather momentum from an improving Palestinian economy no longer choked by Israeli checkpoints.


Third, Sharon is holding firm, despite the increasing pressure on him for unilateral compliance. The easiest concessions, withdrawing to pre-March 2002 positions, he is making. On the settlement issue, he is dragging his feet, rather than pursuing a vigorous outpost removal policy. The pressure is coming to bear hardest however on the release of Paletinian terrorists in Israeli jails. This concession is of course first on the list of the terror organizations, and accordingly a top priority for Abbas & Dahlan who desperate to preserve the hudna. Israeli public opinion, which would happily give away every outpost tommorrow (and for many the actual settlements themselves) rightly do not want to the government to release murderers who will undoubtedly murder again.


Finally, there is the odd spectacle of the Sharon government and the security fence. On the one hand, Sharon correctly stood firm against the diplomatic offensive against the fence by the Europeans and their American wannabes in the State Department. On the other hand, he isn't exactly cracking the whip to get it built. Until it is, however, the temptation for the Palestinian terror groups to once more take the offensive will be too great; and the costs of not building the fence, far too high.