PERMANENT OSLO-ITIS


There is plenty of irrationality to spare in the Israel-Palestinian conflict, yet it is one more twist of irony that the most rational actors, such as Arafat and the settlers are deemed "irrational," while the die-hard Peace Processors are considered the beacon of rationality. Arafat's actions may be fully contradictory to the hope of a negotiated "two-state" solution, but they have been quite consistent with his core goals - of staying as the dominant Palestinian power broker, and keeping the conflict sufficiently roiling until the Israelis make unilateral concessions or trigger an international intervention by over-reacting. Similarly, for those like MK Benny Elon and the settlers he represents that advocate a Bantustan or "voluntary" transfer "solution" - the continued expansion of settlements deep within the West Bank and Gaza is a fully rational means towards such ends.

For truly astonishing irrational behavior, however, there is the Israeli Left - led by the patron saint of Oslo, Dr. Yossi Beilin. The latest gambit of Beilin, Avraham Burg and others has been to negotiate a proposed settlement with the Palestinians in which Israeli sovereignty over the Temple Mount would be exchanged in return for a Palestinian concession of their insistence that all the descendants of the 1948 refugees (and anyone else the Palestinians wish to count as a "refugee") be settled within pre-1967 Israel.

The faith of the Israeli Left in the power of Israeli concessions to Fatah-led Palestinians is unshakable. While it rational to support a hypothesis in the absence of any evidence, it is fundamentally irrational to do so after an experiment has clearly disproved the theory. Yet, the Peace Processors press on, as if the Oslo experiment was never performed. This insanity is magnified in light of yet another resignation of a would-be Palestinian PM. Putting aside the unwillingness of Fatah to accept the existence of Israel as a Jewish State and abide by any agreements it makes with Israel, Fatah can not even reach an internal consensus on the desirability of creating a functioning Palestinian government, much less create one by eliminating by eliminating the militias.

The Israeli Left however steadfastly refuses to treat the internal politics of the Palestinians as anything more than a black box. To do so would require them to admit the disastrous decision that led to the Oslo Debacle - the decision to rehabilitate Arafat and Fatah rather than strengthen local leaders, the decision to prioritize the process over Palestinian compliance, and most importantly the decision to rely upon Arafat to impose "Peace" from the top down, rather than developing Palestinian political and economic institutions that would provide the environment where grass-roots support for peace could emerge.

The Road Map might have been too little, too late with regard to the failings of Oslo - but at least it addressed the core problems. The Peace Processors, however, are intent to keep putting their finger back in socket - again and again and again. While the Palestinians are stuck with the rational architect of their misery, the Israelis were vote the irrational architects of their misery out of power.