JOHN EDWARDS'S FOREIGN POLICY DILEMMA


I didn't get to see last night's debate, but from accounts of the debate and from the transcript it appeared to be a Kerry victory.


Not surpisingly, the area with tripped Edwards up was foreign policy. On Haiti, Kerry demonstrated he knew far more about the issue than his rival. But the real damage came on the question Edwards knew to expect - his support for the war in Iraq. In reponse, Edwards produced an answer that had Kerry-like clarity without the substance (and giving Kerry an opening to repay Edwards for his zinger following Kerry's long-winded answer on the question in Wisconsin.


The muffed Iraq question, however, is symbolic of Edwards' larger problems on foreign policy. By and large, Edwards has pretty much taken the same blurry stances on foreign policy issues as Kerry. The difference is that Edwards' vagueness on issues comes from a lack of familiarity with these issues, while Kerry's comes in a sense from an overfamiliarty - the continuing tension between his Jeffersonian conviction and his political survival instincts. The result is a discussion that plays to Kerry advantages - he gets to demonstrate his superior experience and knowledge of details, without being pressed to defend the contradictions and shifts in his positions.


The only way for Edwards to counter this problem is to shift the debate from details to principles - by taking firm stances on issues that distinguishes him from Kerry. The dilemma facing Edwards is that he can't take a firmer dovish stance than Kerry: (1) it doesn't fit with his vote on the war, (2) there is little room to maneuver to the left of Kerry on current Iraq policy short of joining Kucinich, and (3) it would be a disaster for the general election - as he lacks Kerry's military aura that permits Kerry to appeal to voters far more hawkish than he is. On the other hand, while there is ample room to position himself as a more hawkish than Kerry, the biggest pool of voters up for grabs in the primaries are the uber-dovish Deaniacs. Considering this, its not surprinsing that Edwards will keep trying to shift the discussion back to the issues he can beat Kerry on: just about everything else.