IS KERRY FINALLY IN THE GAME?

If Kerry does go on to win this fall, I believe yesterday's speech on Iraq will be seen as a turning point for his campaign. For the first time since his convention acceptance speech, Kerry was clear and crisp, outlining his differences with the President unencumbered by his usual mountain of obfuscatory verbiage. On top of that he actual offered something resembling a policy to boot. The key section, in which Kerry offers a devastating critque of the Bush administration's failed assumption about Iraq was quoted by Andrew Sullivan yesterday. However, it a phrase Kerry used later in the speech to apply to Bush - stubborn incomptence - that I believe is the one that gives him the best opportunity to crack Bush's so far impregnable reputation on national security.


First, because Bush's Iraq policy has been stubborn & incompetent. Kerry reeled off some of the clearest examples of Bush's incompetence - failure to adequately train Iraqi soldiers, the inability to utilize the overwhelming majority of the reconstruction money. (To that I would add the collassal moral and strategic failue at Abu Ghraib, which Kerry needs to highlight more). In each case, Bush has stubbornly continued to deny the existance of any problems nor hold anyone accountable.


Second - labeling Bush as "stubborn" is effective political jujitsu. The public's perception of Bush after months of well-honed message form the Bush camp is that he is a decisive and steadfast leader. Rather than fighting against the pre-disposition, "stubborn incompetence" exploits it. There is fine line between steadfast and stubborn and Kerry has the very doable task of pushing the perception of Bush over that line. Bush doesn't swerve from his chosen path, but he's driving us off a cliff. This metaphor needs to pounded home ad nauseum.


Third, making the election about Bush's "incomptence" frames the election on the ground least favorable to Bush and most favorable to Kerry. The core vulnerability for Bush is the yawning chasm between his rhetoric and his real accomplishments. Kerry needs to drag Bush into the muck of the details of the last four years, and not let him retreat to platitudes. (here Edwards could be very effective, complementing Bush on his good intentions but sticking the knife in on his failed execution). The Bush administrations glib excuses for their failures "freedom's messy", "war is unpredictable" don't wear well. In contrast, while Kerry fails repeatedly at being stirring, he should be able to market himself as stable and competent.


Kerry has finally found a message that could win the election. Whether he sticks to it is another question.