Hakuna Fatah-ta

The Peace Process is back in full swing. If the prisoner release and accompanying editorials urging additional Israeli concessions to strengthen Fatah weren't clear enough indications, the Bush administration's announcement of full fledged Peace Conference confirms it.

The "West Bank First" plan comes in the wake of the Hamas victory in Gaza, which put a bloody coda on the failure of the "Gaza First" plan trotted out after Israel's unilateral withdrawal. From Day One, the plan was doomed, as the greenhouses left behind on the settlement sites were looted and quickly replaced with rocket launchers. A democratic election contested by rival armed militia-parties failed to solve the Palestinian internal disarray and hopes for the burdens of governance to moderate Hamas proved futile.

Now however, the Fatah collapse in Gaza has led to the corpse of Oslo be reanimated once again - in the West Bank at least. Once again, Israel and Fatah are ostensibly negotiating over a transition to a two-state solution, entailing in a Fatah-run state in most of the West Bank (and at least theoretically, Gaza.) From all indications, the Bush Administration, Olmert and the Peace Processors (and their cheerleaders in the punditocracy) appear bent on repeating the same mistakes that doomed Oslo.

First and foremost, they are continuing to build a Peace Process around a cult of personality. The entire edifice of Oslo was based on the shaky foundation of Arafat. Every Israeli concession, and every American intervention was focused on one goal - strengthening Arafat in the hopes he would deliver his end of the bargain. As a result, Arafat's refusal to put away the terror option and fully commit to a negotiated two-state solution doomed Oslo. Moreover, rather than leaving the Palestinians the building blocks towards statehood, the Oslo years left Palestinians poorer in everything but militias.

Despite this, the latest chatter from the Peace Processors is centered around one goal: strengthening Abbas. Once again, the entire process is dependent on the whims and capacities of the head of Fatah. It is All About Abbas. As a result, the tough work of building functional institutions of Palestinian governance is being shunted aside for photo-op summits. The release of Fatah militia are presented to Abbas, but little is being done to give the average Palestinian a peace dividend.

One would hope that some lessons were learned from the fiasco of Oslo. That this time, Israeli concessions will be tethered to concrete steps taken by Fatah, and the US and the EU would focus not only on Fatah's ability to control terror, but also on its ability to deliver sound government and services. Further, one would hope that Jordan and Egypt would be brought in to play an intimate day-to-day role in ensuring progress is made, and not simply permitted to take cynicallyl disengage between summit meetings. And most importantly, that the Bush administration realize the folly of waiting for some grand breakthrough of a final status agreement, rather than pressing for concrete steps towards dismantling settlements and resettling refugees immediately so that even if the plan fails, progress is made to an ultimate solution to the problem.

But then again, for the Peace Processors, these are unnecessary quibbles with that get the great vision of the Two-State Solution. As long as hands are shaking, light-bulbs are flashing and symbolic Israeli concessions keep flowing to Abbas, there is nothing to worry about it. Hakuna Fatah-ta.