RIGHT-WING PIPE DREAMS

Just One Minute is buying into the latest round of GOP hyping of a Black-Jewish rift leading to a Jewish exodus to the GOP, dooming the Dems. The latest version of the argument is particularly weak. It rests on the following premises.

1) Jews have voted for GOP candidates such as Pataki, Weld and Bloomberg.
2) The post Camp David violence in the Middle East and the rise of anti-Semitism in the Arab world and Europe have made solidarity with Israel the highest priority on the American Jewish agenda.
3) The left wing of the Democratic party, especially Black multiculturalists, want to tilt American foreign policy away from Israel.
4) The GOP has become reliably pro-Israel - which has firm support of the influential neocons and the Christian Right.

The most comprehensive study of Jewish voting patterns, published in Commentary a few years ago, revealed the following patterns - that American Jews were no longer radically left of the overall voting population on economic issues, but remained solidly liberal on cultural issues. The study concluded that educational background was the dominant factor in Jewish voting patterns. At this point in American Jewish history, assimilation is the dominant factor in American Jewish voting patterns - but the America Jews have assimilated into is socially liberal, fiscally moderate world of suburban professionals. And as the Emerging Democratic Majority accurately describes, this group of voters is behind the recent dominance of the Dems in the Northeast suburbs. In this context, the votes for Pataki, Bloomberg and Weld are meaningless. Sure - Jews will vote for GOP candidates - if they run as moderate Democrats.

What is more relevant is the reemergence of Israel solidarity among affilliated Jews in the past two years. The post-Camp David Palestinian terror offensive has healed the rift between the mainstream Oslo supporters and opponents, producing a united front solidly behind Israel's right to defend itself. Affiliated American Jews strongly support Bush's stance in the Middle East, as well as the Admnistration's hawkish position in the war on terror. However, at the present, the Democratic party remains staunchly pro-Israel, with the exception of its multiculturalist left-wing. There is no reason to suggest that the "People of Color" school of foreign policy (supporting the leadership of a nations "of color" regardless of their political makeup), espoused by left-wing Black leaders, is gaining strength among Black voters or the Democratic party at large.

The simple fact is that despite the affinity of many of American Jews for GOP foreign policy, on the overwhelming majority of domestic issues, from abortion to guns to the economy to the environment to education to health care, American Jews are at home in the Democratic party. And unless the Dems completely blunder on Israel and foreign policy, they are likely to remain there for the forseeable future.