BUSH SEEKS TO CUT OFF THE EL NORTE OPTION


With the recently announced immigration initiative, Bush has once more demonstrated the political savvy that makes him such a formidable opponent for even a competent Dem challenge in 2004. As any astute observer of the electoral map realizes, the Dems have three possibilities for victory – 1) to pry away Florida or a few other swing states in the South (Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee); 2) to sweep the entire Rust Belt, which in effect requires them to not only hold Michigan, Pennsylvania and Illinois, but also to end decades of Republican dominance in Ohio; or 3) to ride the rising tide of Latino voters to victory in the Southwest (Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado). It is painfully obvious that a Dean candidacy, with its unabashed embrace of the cultural left, has no chance of employing the first strategy, and little likelihood of succeeding on the second. On the other hand, the Southwest Gambit was a least a decent gamble. If Bush’s courting of the Latino vote can close the gap 10%, Dr. Dean’s campaign’s is pretty much DOA, no matter how high he stokes the flames of the Dem base.