JEWS FOR W.


The AJC has released a study showing Bush getting more than 31% of the Jewish vote in a potential race with Howard Dean. (Dean 60%, Bush 31%, undecided 9%). The same poll showed similar numbers for Kerry (59-31), Gephardt (60-31) and Clark (59-29), but a higher margin for Lieberman (71-24). To put these numbers in perspective, in the 2000 election, Gore thumped Bush 79-19.


Unlike, say soccer moms or Nascar dad, American Jews are neither sizable (approximately 2.2% of the population), nor generally swing voters. Still, they vote disproportionately (some estimates suggest the Jewish percentage of the electorate is as much as twice the size of the population) and are concentrated almost entirely in the following large states: New York (8.7%), California (2.9%), Florida (3.9%), Illinois (2.2%), Pennsylvania (2.3%), New Jersey (5.7%), Maryland (4.0%) and Massachusetts (4.3%). (Together those states comprise over 3/4 of the American Jewish population while only 2/5 of the total American population).


Since the New Deal, American Jews have been and continue to be one of the most reliably Democratic constituencies in the nation. According to the findings of sociologist Charles Liebman, assimilation and/or prosperity have effectively minimized the gaps between Jews and rest of America on economic issues (although I happen to dispute this, given the fact that Liebman is comparing the relatively well-off Jewish community to the American public at-large, and not others with similar income), but with respect to cultural issues, stand out as left-of-center.


So, given the profile of American Jewry as economic moderates and cultural liberals, its not surprising to see the last two major shifts in Jewish voting patterns, 1) the decline of Democratic dominance in the 70s & 80s with the Republican capture of the suburbs (with Nixon '72, Reagan '80,'84 & Bush '88 getting from 31-39% of the Jewish vote) and the revival of Democratic dominance under in the 90s as part of the coastal professional exodus from the GOP (Bush '92, Dole '96, Bush '00 getting less than 20% of the Jewish vote).


What then to make of the current trend, which shows not only Bush erasing the Democratic gains of the past decade among a group that should be continuing to trend Democrat (after, we're not talking about a group that overlaps too much with NASCAR dads), as well as the jump from 9 to 16% of Jews who identify as Republicans since 2000 (Democratic identification fell from 58% to 51%)?


In the past, Jewish Republicans were pretty much confined to three groups, the first being the Orthodox (especially the Ultra-Orthodox) who rather than being repelled by the cultural conservatism of the GOP, were drawn to it. In addition, Ultra-Orthodox communities resemble groups such as the Mormons to the extent that their own extensive communal social welfare net makes them prefer on the whole lower taxes and less government services. The second group is less affiliated affluent Jews who vote Republican based on pocketbook issues. The third, and historically smallest group were the single-issue Israel hawks who voted with the Republicans out of a belief that the GOP's hard-line in the Cold War would translate into more support for hawkish Israeli policies.


So where is the additional support for Bush coming from? Demographics suggests that the first group is growing, but only by a percent or two. The reality of assimilation is slowly driving an increase in the second group as well, but only marginally. So, the most likely explanation is that the push is coming from the third group - those who base their vote on Israel.


It should be noted that the real hard-liners were already in the GOP camp, either as part the core GOP hawks or as part of the religious camp. So what we are dealing with is the GOP opening up an edge among American Jews with more intense connection to Israel, but whose views are still in the mainstream. There are multiple for this gap, ranging from Bush's clean break from Oslo to Bush's approach to the War on Terror (and the Dems denial that it is a war) which all interlink. More on what this means for Israel, American Jews, and the Democratic party at a later point.

[note: unfortunately, this is not the complete original post, which somehow got garbled when posted to the archive, I've tried to reconstruct it the best I could]