A MANDATE, NOT A STATE

The latest nonsense passing for diplomatic initiative in the Middle East is Powell's call for a "provisional" Palestinian state. The plan would be to create a Palestinan state on what the Palestinians currently have jurisdiction over, and later work out the messy issues of borders and refugees. Not surprisingly, the plan has received a warm backing from Shimon Peres.

The only positive thing I can say for the plan is that it 1) provides the Arabs with a fig leaf so they can pretend to support the U.S. invasion of Iraq; and 2) it provides Israel with political cover to begin withdrawing the most isolated settlements (especially in Gaza).

The cons are obvious. First, there has not been real reform of the Palestinian Authority - meaning that the "state" will do just as poor a job of delivering social welfare as the dysfunctional PA. Second, the plan is completely unrealistic on the issue of security. Sending George Tenet over for a couple of days is not going to transform Arafat's mulitple terrorist bands into a reliable anti-terrorist police force. The third is that even a "provisional" statehood could be seen as a validation of the 2nd Intifada. There is no reason whatsoever to think that the Palestinians would not turn back to violence as a negotiating tool over the critical issues.

The idea that the Palestinians are ready and able to rule themselves and act as a responsible member of the international community at the current time is simply delusional. What's need is not a provisional Palestinian state, but a provisional mandate in which the Palestinian territories are policed and administered by reliable parties (Jordan is still the best bet here) while the necessary infrastructure for a functional Palestinian state can be constructed. The Palestinians quite simply are not ready to accept this, despite the long-term benefits that await them. Its still unclear what short of an Israeli reoccupation will convince of the need to make the necesary compromises for a lasting peace.