SEND POWELL TO THE SUBCONTINENT

There is a time and place to put the prestige of the United States on the line with an all-out diplomatic offensive. While the Bush Admnistration was distracted by a sideshow in the Middle East (as if the fate of the world depended on the survival of Arafat's regime), the far more serious conflict between India and Pakistan has been left to fester. The balance of equities is not close in the matter. Pakistan's military regime has for years used Islamic militants to fight a proxy war of terror against India in the guise of Kashmiri independence. On the other hand, India has mishandled its relations with the local Kashmiris, although still providing the residents far more rights that in Pakistani-Occupied-Kashmir (I'll link to the exclusive Anita Raman expose on this topic when she gets around to publishing it). The obvious problem is that Pakistan has nuclear weapons, and enough internal instability to make their use conceivable.

General Musharraf, lionized as the U.S.'s ally in the war on terror, has zigged and zagged since 9/11 to maintain his own power - on the one hand cutting off the Taliban and cracking down on radical Islamacists in the wake of the December Indian buildup, while on the other hand vigorously blocking the return of the democratic parties, and turning a blind eye to Army-jihadi collaberation when outside pressure has diminished. Much of Pakistan's military and intelligence services is vested in the Kashmir proxy war against India, and the use of Islamist terror in the campaign. Musharraf will only engage in a real crackdown if he is under sustained, intense pressure.

There is only one source for that pressure that will both be effective and not risk a nuclear war - a full-scale diplomatic initiative by the United States. The U.S. needs to offer a new set of sticks and carrots for Musharraf - it needs to send Powell to demand a complete expulsion of Islamic terror groups, a housecleaning of the army and intelligence services, and a timetable to return to democratic rule. In return the U.S. will broker a timetable for Indian demobilization, an even larger economic development package, and offer its services to mediate a political solution to the Kashmir conflict.

This should rank as the top agenda item for the State Department - for while an unreformed Palestinian Authority is a threat to the security of Israel, an unreformed Pakistan is a threat to the security of the world.