AFTER ARAFAT: THE JORDAN OPTION

There will never be peace so long as Yassir Arafat is the leader of the Palestinians. For a Palestinian state to be at peace with Israel, its government must provide a dramatically improved quality of life to its citizens. That simply isn't going to happen under an Arafat regime, which has shown a propensity to funnel foreign aid into building an army and rewarding cronies with Mediterrean villas. A corrupt Palestinian administration will lead to an angry populace. An angry populace needs an outlet. The outlet, as it is today throughout the Arab world, will be Israel.

So it is time to do some serious thinking about a post-Arafat Palestine. It is clear that the Palestinians should not be under Israeli rule. It is equally clear that the Palestinians are in no position to rule themselves. So how can a Palestinians receive self-governance in a way that has the best chances to bring peace to the Israelis, and prosperity to the Palestinians.

A particuarly bad proposal that is gaining momentum is the idea of a U.S. or NATO force to engage in nation-building. The problem is that such forces will invariably have to crack down on Palestinian terrorist organizations that oppose a two-state solution. Such crackdowns will quickly turn the populace's view of the international force from liberators to occupiers. On the other hand, an Arab security force could maintain the order necessary for social and economic growth in a way that would receive legitimacy from both the local population and the international community. Of all of the Arab regimes, one has proven most its commitment to fighting terror - Jordan. Of all the Arab states, only one has treated the Palestinans as human beings instead of propaganda pawns - Jordan. Of all the Arab states, the one that is genuinely trying to improve its citizenry's quality of life is Jordan.

There is no better solution than to place a future Palestinian state under a Jordanian mandate. The moral arguments against it are quite weak - one can not hate the Palestinians enough to say they deserve to have Yasser Arafat as their leader. The practical arguments against it are stronger, but surpassable. What is needed is vision and courage by the United States - to once and for all call the bluff of the Arab states that claim they have the best interests of the Palestinians at heart.