April 21, 2002

SHARON'S FINAL ACT?

Ha'aretz has an insightful analysis of the end game of the Sharon government. The idea is that there is now a short window where Sharon will be able to expel Arafat before the U.S. goes to war with Iraq, and then pays back it's so-called Arab allies with a new peace process push. Sharon is quite aware that such a dramatic step would end the unity government, and spend the political capital he has gained from Operation Defensive Shield. The article suggests that Sharon would be perfectly happy with the expulsion of Arafat as the cap to his political career.

One can only hope. Arafat needs to go - but Sharon is clearly not the man to lead Israel in a post-Arafat era. The next leader of Israel must show an ability for a creative vision of how to combien deterrence with separation. Above all, they can not be locked into either the Oslo process or inflexible on settlement evacuation.

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