UNILATERAL DISENGAGEMENT: SWEEPING TOWARDS THE ISRAELI CENTER

The overwhelming support for Operation Defensive Shield among the Israeli public should not be confused with blanket support for continuing the isolated settlements in the West Bank and Gaza. A growing number of Israelis support unilateral seperation from the Palestinians - building a fence between Israeli and Palestinian territory, and withdrawing from the isolated settlements. This support is beginning to manifest itself as a widening grassroots coalition, that includes not only disillusioned doves, but also local political leaders and former military leaders.

Such a seperation can not be seen as in and of itself the end of the conflict - for many Palestinans Netanya, Haifa, Ramleh and Jaffa are "occupied" lands that need to be liberated. Also, without a stable government focused on economic development rather than irredentist militarism, the Palestinians woeful conditions will be channelled into anti-Israeli hatred. Still, unilateral seperation will go a long way towards protecting Israeli civilians from Palestinians terror, and reduce unneccessary constraints on Palestinan civilians by Israeli checkpoints. While the fringes of Israeli debate remain committed to ressurecting the Oslo process or reoccupation, the majority of Israelis could fall behind unilateral seperation if the following two issues get addressed.

Where does the fence go?
The baseline should be the borders offered by Barak in Camp David, with whatever slight modifications that would facilitate security. Such borders will require evacuation of a minority of the settler population (although a majority of the actual settlements), and address the two central problems with the 1967 borders. First, the insufficient depth between the West Bank and the Mediterrean coast, a region that contains Israel's urban heartland. Second, the isolation of Jerusalem from the rest of country.

How do you maintain deterrence?
This is the most serious problem. The unilateral withdrawal from Lebanon was executed sloppily, and it supported the Arab myth of a panicked retreat under fire. This interpretation was widely accepted by Palestinian militants, who started the second intifada with the aim at achieving an unconditional withdrawal of the Israelis from the territories. So the question remains, how can to execute a withdrawal without encouraging a new round of violence from Palestinan militants?

Operation Defensive Shield may have radically changed the context for this question. Before the massive anti-terror offensive of the past month, a unilateral withdrawal would 1) clearly have been seen as a victory to Palestinian terror and 2) Palestinian militants would have had the capacity to make the withdrawal a chaotic retreat under fire, and launch a new offensive against Israel immediately after the withdrawal. Now, it is less certain - Israel has clearly reestablished its deterrant capacity. On the other hand, there remains unfinished business - the headwaters of Palestinian terror, Yasser Arafat remains, however, precariously in power, despite the blood on his hands and the lies off his tongue.

A Fair Trade
The solution therefore, is difficult, but obvious. The unilateral withdrawal, and settlement evacuation should take place either subsequent or concurrent with the expulsion of Yasser Arafat from the territories.
Courageous leadership is needed from both Americans and Israelis. The Bush Admnistration needs to offer the following deal to Sharon: We'll let you expel Arafat, in return for evacuating the isolatied settlements. From Arafat-centric view of the conflict, such a move would be a disaster - from the point of view of the real needs of the Palestinains, being rid of both their disastrous leaders and the most radical of the settlers would be the best thing that's happened to them since Oslo began.

This is of course, only a partial solution - it will not be the end either to Palestinian violence or Israeli occupation. Until a responsible, stable government is ruling the Palestinians, their cities will still be a source of terror against Israel, and Israel will need to defend itself through periodic incursions to disrupt the terrorist infrastructure. However, a removal of two of the staunchest opponents to peace - Arafat and the radical settlers will help in devising the necessary structure to lead the Palestinians to peaceful self-rule.